Saamaan Magazine intends to periodically publish interviews with prominent Iranian-Canadians citizens. In this issue, we have a special interview with Dr. Arsalan Mohajer, a professor and researcher living in Toronto, who was invited by Mehran Safapour, the Editor-in-Chief of Saamaan Magazine.
Dr. Mohajer, thank you for giving us the opportunity for this interview to introduce our readers to you as a successful Iranian living abroad and to your work as a prominent professor and researcher in Canada in your field Magazine.
Q1. If possible please give us a summary of your educational and experience background, before coming to Canada.
I am a Geophysicist and Geotechnical professional. I was educated in Florida State University, then moved to England under a British Council scholarship and attended the University of Cambridge and University of London (Imperial College of Science and Technology) where I completed my PhD in February, 1975. I then returned to Iran and was engaged with site selection processes of 20 nuclear power plants envisaged at the Atomic Energy Organization. I was also involved with earthquake risk assessment and seismic resistant design parameters for Bushehr, and the ill-fated Darkhovain (Ahvaz) and Esfahan nuclear plant sites. I also served as a consultant to the National Iranian Oil Company, and other government and private organizations for oil and gas, as well as dam projects, for the purposes of site selection and geotechnical evaluation.
Q2. We know that you have been teaching risk management and risk analysis for critical infrastructure in Canada since 1986. Can you elaborate further on your achievements in Canada?
I landed in Canada in 1986, and joined academia as an adjunct professor at the University of Toronto from 1986 to 2008 I also worked as a consultant to the Canadian Nuclear Safety Commission and to Ontario Hydro. I have also served as an expert witness to the Canadian Senate, and to the International Court in The Hague, Netherlands, and have been an active member of a steering committee working on “Universities and Global Responsibilities” in 2004, and of the Governing Council of the International Seismological Centre. I have published over 60 journal articles which have contributed to nuclear site safety in Canada, Europe, Turkey, and Iran, that have been covered by major news media outlets, including CBC, CTV, Globe & Mail, and Toronto StarI was awarded the Thomas Roy award for outstanding publication in the field of applied geosciences from the Canadian Geotechnical Society in 1991. I have also delivered numerous technical presentations on seismic risk assessments at various chapters of the Professional Engineers Ontario (PEO), at Insurance Bureau of Canada, American Geophysical Union, and at international disaster and Emergency management conferences. I was a founding member and councillor at the Association of Professional Geoscientists of Ontario from 2000 to 2004, and as a PGeo member to present. I also served our community as a director of the Canadian Society of Iranian Engineers and Architects (MOHANDES) and as its president (1989-1991) and as a director of two charitable organizations (COHAN and Parya). I was also the recipient of the Upper Canada Medal for contributions to health care excellence from Toronto General & Western Hospital Foundation, and as a member of the Innovative Circle of University Health Network (UHN), since 2018.
Q3. What is your opinion on earthquakes in Canada, and especially in Ontario, compared to other regions?
Accelerated urbanization in recent decades has heightened concerns for protection of communities against natural environmental hazards such as earthquakes, floods, hurricanes, tornados, and pandemics.
Most of central Canada lie on a rigid granite base known as Canadian Shield with no significant earthquakes, but the relatively flatter lowlands are more prone to flooding and draughts. The modern seismic recording networks show that Canada experiences about 4,000 earthquakes every year, most of them small and not noticed by people. Nonetheless, there have been at least 26 significant earthquakes in Canada in the last 350 years with magnitude 5.0 or larger. Most of these events occurred in the west coast of B.C., Vancouver Island, and in southeastern Canada, mainly in southern Quebec and southeastern Ontario. Statistical extrapolation indicates that the threat of a large future earthquake of a magnitude of 9.0 is likely in B.C. off the west coast of Vancouver Island, and Quebec could suffer from a 7.1 magnitude earthquake near the provincial capital.
The Insurance Bureau of Canada (IBC) has estimated that damages in those regions could exceed the insurance industry’s capacity to respond, as potential economic losses of $75 billion in the B.C. seismic zone, and $61 billion in the Quebec would be expected. As part of a presentation to the IBC, a few years ago, I suggested that events of such magnitudes have a domino effect on the Canadian economy triggered by property damage, supply chain interruption, loss of services, infrastructure failure and business interruption. Therefore, insurance companies may go bankrupt, and put the burden on governments and all Canadians to accept responsibility to prepare and recover. In order to better manage life’s daily risks, a universally accepted approach puts the priorities, both individually and collectively, on important pillars of risk control.
In cases of natural hazards, or a pandemic, or industrial risk control, the same principles apply, but with slightly different approach and terminology. For example, in an industrial, or pandemic setting Risk Control Hierarchy, in order of most to least effective, are:
- Prevention or elimination of risk, if possible.
- Substitution with less hazardous situation,
- Engineering design to prevent or reduce impact, by mitigation the hazard,
- Administrative procedures, like regulation for social and physical distancing,
- Personal protective equipment (PPE) that Increase resiliency
- Coping and adaptation with the consequences of hazards.
Q4. How do you think Canada in general and Toronto in particular is doing in terms of infrastructure and critical facilities risk management? Do you know of any shortcomings or points of weakness in this regard?
In general, Canada is relatively safer than many other parts of the world, from natural disaster impacts point of view. Nonetheless, old dams, nuclear generating stations, power transmission lines, and urban communities are prone to a number of threats including earthquakes, floods, sever weather conditions, like freezing rain, hurricanes, tornados, forest fires. Notable examples are repeated Alberta floods 1996, 1997, 2005, and 2013, Quebec in 1998, and for Toronto we had Hurricane Hazel, in 1954 (caused fatality and destruction in Hogs Hallow), flood of 2005, and ice storm of 2013. Freezing transmission lines and transformers in 2013, left 500,000 people without power in Ontario and Quebec for a week in the winter, and followed by a flood in July that inflicted damages in the order of several billion dollars, in the city.
There are other low probability-high impact incidents, such as future earthquakes and its impacts on critical infrastructures that are of major concerns in southern Ontario. Lack of destructive earthquakes in the past short history of settlement, doesn’t necessarily rule out the risk of future events. Incidentally, through my research on reassessment of seismic risk for nuclear facilities in southern Ontario, I discovered and published extensively on relatively young faults and fractures across Lake Ontario (Niagara-Pickering lineament) and in the Rouge River valley, and in Metro Zoo area that are inconveniently close to nuclear power plants at Pickering, This research was supported by the Atomic Energy Control Board (now re-named; Canadian Nuclear Safety Commission) using geophysical surveys, micro-seismic monitoring, field works, and several dives at the bottom of Lake Ontario, facilitated by Canadian Navy submersibles.
On the other hand, statistical extrapolation of current small magnitude earthquakes in Greater Toronto Area, indicates that probability of higher magnitude events are about 57% for M5, 6% for M6, and about 1% for M7 respectively, in the next 50 years. These risk levels are low and acceptable for ordinary buildings that are designed and built in compliance with the current National Building Codes. However, estimated ground motion exceeds the design base of older critical infrastructures, in particular nuclear power plants, and dams, in Quebec and Ontario. Fortunately, there is a plan to shut down and decommission nuclear facilities at Pickering that were designed in 1960s in the next few years (2024-25).
Q5. Is your field of activity or research related to hazards such as pandemics or do they include similar threats? If so, do you have any views on the state of prevention and control of COVID-19 or similar threats in Canada?
While infectious disease like the one responsible for the COVID-19 pandemic are traditionally thought of as once-in-a-century crises, human populations get exposed to two new viruses each year, according to the EcoHealth Alliance Institute. Therefore, pandemics are not isolated events, and we need to have a plan to prevent future ones with the same attention we put on chronic disease such as cancer and heart attacks. Unfortunately, COVID-19 pandemic has infected over 28 million, and killed nearly 900,000 people worldwide, with a total economic impact of over $25 trillion, so far. We therefore desperately need to promote safety culture and invest in preventive measures that could cost a fraction of that amount. This task starts with separating human habitats from those of wild animals. Since our immune system is not familiar with many viruses in the wildlife, it is advisable to stop deforestation and any close contacts with bats and other creatures as host of a high variety of viruses in the wild.
As indicated in my response to earlier question, the most effective approach is to follow the hierarchy of hazard control and managing all risks, including pandemics, by accepting personal responsibilities, in addition to observing the rules and regulations suggested, or demanded by governments.
Q6. As a researcher, please give us your opinion on the recent pandemic and coronavirus disease, as well as its impact in your field, career and the community as a whole. How do you think this threat can be turned into an opportunity?
As I said earlier, prevention, or elimination of hazards is the most effective and standard practice in advanced communities when it comes to natural disasters like flood control system, earthquake resistant design, or chronic diseases like heart disease or cancer. But when it comes to infectious disease, we tend to wait until they strike to act. According to Peter Dascak, President of EcoHealth Alliance, Investment of $22 billion globally per year in programs to reduce deforestation and curb wildlife trafficking would significantly reduce pandemic risk in the future. The cost of these preventative measures–over the next 10 years–totals only about two percent of the estimated eventual cost of COVID-19. Nonetheless, according to Dr. Fauci, director of the US National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, has recently announced that we have been entering an era of repeated pandemics on this planet, and need drastic changes in our relation with environment to survive.
There is also a contentious debate on the future of the world after this pandemic that is much different from the past ones. The most significant is the concentration of people in big cities and social gatherings that make us more vulnerable. As some people have responded well by observing physical distancing, by moving to suburbs, and working remotely from home, it could become a new norm in better educated communities. This kind of changes in lifestyle and new consumer habits can help environmental sustainability, profoundly. Less traffic, cleaner air, reduced noise and stressful encounters, are vividly observable after the pandemic. Unfortunately, it has severely impacted loss of jobs, and economic balances we are used to. Some intellectuals also predict that continuation, or repeat of future waves of pandemics could force the demise of big cities, in favor of growth for smaller communities in suburbs.
Q7. Have you read the previous issues of Saamaan Magazine? If so, what is your opinion about our magazine? Considering your academic and research background, what effect do you think such magazines can have on their readers in terms of science, technology and professionally? Would you have and suggestions about Saamaan Magazine format or contents in general.
Yes I had the pleasure of seeing the first 3 issues. I found it very informative to new comers to your industry, and presume it brings them up to date on the latest regulation and available building techniques, and trades in Canada. Another valuable contribution of Saamaan magazine is to create bonds, and a sense of belonging, and collaboration among all the members. I don’t see any obvious deficiencies, but if I am asked to make suggestions for further improvements, I would also emphasize on benefits of articles and workshops regarding use of new technologies, skill development, and professional ethics and practices.
Thank you again for giving us the opportunity to have this interview with you, if you have a message for Iranians living in Canada and especially Toronto, and in particular people in the scientific, technical and professional fields in this region, please share it with us.
Promotion of safety culture is one of the most effective means of saving lives and reducing damage to human wellbeing. We witnessed the inability of governments, political and religious leaders to protect most people in various disasters, including pandemics. It appears that we must take some responsibility individually to tackle daily risks, reduce human suffering and cope with the reality of our vulnerabilities in a fragile domain of existence.
In general, major shifts, or life changing experiences, that on average happens every 5 to 10 years, bring unexpected impacts in everyone’s life. Some can be in our control such as changing jobs, divorces, accidents, or neglecting a healthy life style. But, some are not, such as floods, earthquakes, hurricanes, wild fires, economic market collapses and pandemics.
We have no choice but to cope with these life transitions and be creative in our means of adaptation to new situations in our lives. Standards and traditional approach have been summarized, earlier in question-3.urther, we have no other choice but to promote the pillars of safety culture, through risk assessment, disaster prevention, mitigation, preparedness, and being mindful of our personal responsibilities.
Specifically, I would recommend having an emergency kit ready for unforeseen incidents, that should contain food, water, medications, radio, mobile phone, battery powered lights. We should also increase our resiliency by regular inspection of integrity and safety of our residence and work environments.
Some social and economic scientists predict that we will never get back to pre-Covid normal, and by the time new vaccines bring a herd immunity, we have already adapted new lifestyles. I would consider this as an opportunity for protection of the environment that ultimately may increases the chances for human race’s survival on this planet.
Saamaan Magazine intends to periodically publish interviews with prominent Iranian-Canadians citizens. In this issue, we have a special interview with Dr. Arsalan Mohajer, a professor and researcher living in Toronto, who was invited by Mehran Safapour, the Editor-in-Chief of Saamaan Magazine.
Dr. Mohajer, thank you for giving us the opportunity for this interview to introduce our readers to you as a successful Iranian living abroad and to your work as a prominent professor and researcher in Canada in your field Magazine.
Q1. If possible please give us a summary of your educational and experience background, before coming to Canada.
I am a Geophysicist and Geotechnical professional. I was educated in Florida State University, then moved to England under a British Council scholarship and attended the University of Cambridge and University of London (Imperial College of Science and Technology) where I completed my PhD in February, 1975. I then returned to Iran and was engaged with site selection processes of 20 nuclear power plants envisaged at the Atomic Energy Organization. I was also involved with earthquake risk assessment and seismic resistant design parameters for Bushehr, and the ill-fated Darkhovain (Ahvaz) and Esfahan nuclear plant sites. I also served as a consultant to the National Iranian Oil Company, and other government and private organizations for oil and gas, as well as dam projects, for the purposes of site selection and geotechnical evaluation.
Q2. We know that you have been teaching risk management and risk analysis for critical infrastructure in Canada since 1986. Can you elaborate further on your achievements in Canada?
I landed in Canada in 1986, and joined academia as an adjunct professor at the University of Toronto from 1986 to 2008 I also worked as a consultant to the Canadian Nuclear Safety Commission and to Ontario Hydro. I have also served as an expert witness to the Canadian Senate, and to the International Court in The Hague, Netherlands, and have been an active member of a steering committee working on “Universities and Global Responsibilities” in 2004, and of the Governing Council of the International Seismological Centre. I have published over 60 journal articles which have contributed to nuclear site safety in Canada, Europe, Turkey, and Iran, that have been covered by major news media outlets, including CBC, CTV, Globe & Mail, and Toronto StarI was awarded the Thomas Roy award for outstanding publication in the field of applied geosciences from the Canadian Geotechnical Society in 1991. I have also delivered numerous technical presentations on seismic risk assessments at various chapters of the Professional Engineers Ontario (PEO), at Insurance Bureau of Canada, American Geophysical Union, and at international disaster and Emergency management conferences. I was a founding member and councillor at the Association of Professional Geoscientists of Ontario from 2000 to 2004, and as a PGeo member to present. I also served our community as a director of the Canadian Society of Iranian Engineers and Architects (MOHANDES) and as its president (1989-1991) and as a director of two charitable organizations (COHAN and Parya). I was also the recipient of the Upper Canada Medal for contributions to health care excellence from Toronto General & Western Hospital Foundation, and as a member of the Innovative Circle of University Health Network (UHN), since 2018.
Q3. What is your opinion on earthquakes in Canada, and especially in Ontario, compared to other regions?
Accelerated urbanization in recent decades has heightened concerns for protection of communities against natural environmental hazards such as earthquakes, floods, hurricanes, tornados, and pandemics.
Most of central Canada lie on a rigid granite base known as Canadian Shield with no significant earthquakes, but the relatively flatter lowlands are more prone to flooding and draughts. The modern seismic recording networks show that Canada experiences about 4,000 earthquakes every year, most of them small and not noticed by people. Nonetheless, there have been at least 26 significant earthquakes in Canada in the last 350 years with magnitude 5.0 or larger. Most of these events occurred in the west coast of B.C., Vancouver Island, and in southeastern Canada, mainly in southern Quebec and southeastern Ontario. Statistical extrapolation indicates that the threat of a large future earthquake of a magnitude of 9.0 is likely in B.C. off the west coast of Vancouver Island, and Quebec could suffer from a 7.1 magnitude earthquake near the provincial capital.
The Insurance Bureau of Canada (IBC) has estimated that damages in those regions could exceed the insurance industry’s capacity to respond, as potential economic losses of $75 billion in the B.C. seismic zone, and $61 billion in the Quebec would be expected. As part of a presentation to the IBC, a few years ago, I suggested that events of such magnitudes have a domino effect on the Canadian economy triggered by property damage, supply chain interruption, loss of services, infrastructure failure and business interruption. Therefore, insurance companies may go bankrupt, and put the burden on governments and all Canadians to accept responsibility to prepare and recover. In order to better manage life’s daily risks, a universally accepted approach puts the priorities, both individually and collectively, on important pillars of risk control.
In cases of natural hazards, or a pandemic, or industrial risk control, the same principles apply, but with slightly different approach and terminology. For example, in an industrial, or pandemic setting Risk Control Hierarchy, in order of most to least effective, are:
- Prevention or elimination of risk, if possible.
- Substitution with less hazardous situation,
- Engineering design to prevent or reduce impact, by mitigation the hazard,
- Administrative procedures, like regulation for social and physical distancing,
- Personal protective equipment (PPE) that Increase resiliency
- Coping and adaptation with the consequences of hazards.
Q4. How do you think Canada in general and Toronto in particular is doing in terms of infrastructure and critical facilities risk management? Do you know of any shortcomings or points of weakness in this regard?
In general, Canada is relatively safer than many other parts of the world, from natural disaster impacts point of view. Nonetheless, old dams, nuclear generating stations, power transmission lines, and urban communities are prone to a number of threats including earthquakes, floods, sever weather conditions, like freezing rain, hurricanes, tornados, forest fires. Notable examples are repeated Alberta floods 1996, 1997, 2005, and 2013, Quebec in 1998, and for Toronto we had Hurricane Hazel, in 1954 (caused fatality and destruction in Hogs Hallow), flood of 2005, and ice storm of 2013. Freezing transmission lines and transformers in 2013, left 500,000 people without power in Ontario and Quebec for a week in the winter, and followed by a flood in July that inflicted damages in the order of several billion dollars, in the city.
There are other low probability-high impact incidents, such as future earthquakes and its impacts on critical infrastructures that are of major concerns in southern Ontario. Lack of destructive earthquakes in the past short history of settlement, doesn’t necessarily rule out the risk of future events. Incidentally, through my research on reassessment of seismic risk for nuclear facilities in southern Ontario, I discovered and published extensively on relatively young faults and fractures across Lake Ontario (Niagara-Pickering lineament) and in the Rouge River valley, and in Metro Zoo area that are inconveniently close to nuclear power plants at Pickering, This research was supported by the Atomic Energy Control Board (now re-named; Canadian Nuclear Safety Commission) using geophysical surveys, micro-seismic monitoring, field works, and several dives at the bottom of Lake Ontario, facilitated by Canadian Navy submersibles.
On the other hand, statistical extrapolation of current small magnitude earthquakes in Greater Toronto Area, indicates that probability of higher magnitude events are about 57% for M5, 6% for M6, and about 1% for M7 respectively, in the next 50 years. These risk levels are low and acceptable for ordinary buildings that are designed and built in compliance with the current National Building Codes. However, estimated ground motion exceeds the design base of older critical infrastructures, in particular nuclear power plants, and dams, in Quebec and Ontario. Fortunately, there is a plan to shut down and decommission nuclear facilities at Pickering that were designed in 1960s in the next few years (2024-25).
Q5. Is your field of activity or research related to hazards such as pandemics or do they include similar threats? If so, do you have any views on the state of prevention and control of COVID-19 or similar threats in Canada?
While infectious disease like the one responsible for the COVID-19 pandemic are traditionally thought of as once-in-a-century crises, human populations get exposed to two new viruses each year, according to the EcoHealth Alliance Institute. Therefore, pandemics are not isolated events, and we need to have a plan to prevent future ones with the same attention we put on chronic disease such as cancer and heart attacks. Unfortunately, COVID-19 pandemic has infected over 28 million, and killed nearly 900,000 people worldwide, with a total economic impact of over $25 trillion, so far. We therefore desperately need to promote safety culture and invest in preventive measures that could cost a fraction of that amount. This task starts with separating human habitats from those of wild animals. Since our immune system is not familiar with many viruses in the wildlife, it is advisable to stop deforestation and any close contacts with bats and other creatures as host of a high variety of viruses in the wild.
As indicated in my response to earlier question, the most effective approach is to follow the hierarchy of hazard control and managing all risks, including pandemics, by accepting personal responsibilities, in addition to observing the rules and regulations suggested, or demanded by governments.
Q6. As a researcher, please give us your opinion on the recent pandemic and coronavirus disease, as well as its impact in your field, career and the community as a whole. How do you think this threat can be turned into an opportunity?
As I said earlier, prevention, or elimination of hazards is the most effective and standard practice in advanced communities when it comes to natural disasters like flood control system, earthquake resistant design, or chronic diseases like heart disease or cancer. But when it comes to infectious disease, we tend to wait until they strike to act. According to Peter Dascak, President of EcoHealth Alliance, Investment of $22 billion globally per year in programs to reduce deforestation and curb wildlife trafficking would significantly reduce pandemic risk in the future. The cost of these preventative measures–over the next 10 years–totals only about two percent of the estimated eventual cost of COVID-19. Nonetheless, according to Dr. Fauci, director of the US National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, has recently announced that we have been entering an era of repeated pandemics on this planet, and need drastic changes in our relation with environment to survive.
There is also a contentious debate on the future of the world after this pandemic that is much different from the past ones. The most significant is the concentration of people in big cities and social gatherings that make us more vulnerable. As some people have responded well by observing physical distancing, by moving to suburbs, and working remotely from home, it could become a new norm in better educated communities. This kind of changes in lifestyle and new consumer habits can help environmental sustainability, profoundly. Less traffic, cleaner air, reduced noise and stressful encounters, are vividly observable after the pandemic. Unfortunately, it has severely impacted loss of jobs, and economic balances we are used to. Some intellectuals also predict that continuation, or repeat of future waves of pandemics could force the demise of big cities, in favor of growth for smaller communities in suburbs.
Q7. Have you read the previous issues of Saamaan Magazine? If so, what is your opinion about our magazine? Considering your academic and research background, what effect do you think such magazines can have on their readers in terms of science, technology and professionally? Would you have and suggestions about Saamaan Magazine format or contents in general.
Yes I had the pleasure of seeing the first 3 issues. I found it very informative to new comers to your industry, and presume it brings them up to date on the latest regulation and available building techniques, and trades in Canada. Another valuable contribution of Saamaan magazine is to create bonds, and a sense of belonging, and collaboration among all the members. I don’t see any obvious deficiencies, but if I am asked to make suggestions for further improvements, I would also emphasize on benefits of articles and workshops regarding use of new technologies, skill development, and professional ethics and practices.
Thank you again for giving us the opportunity to have this interview with you, if you have a message for Iranians living in Canada and especially Toronto, and in particular people in the scientific, technical and professional fields in this region, please share it with us.
Promotion of safety culture is one of the most effective means of saving lives and reducing damage to human wellbeing. We witnessed the inability of governments, political and religious leaders to protect most people in various disasters, including pandemics. It appears that we must take some responsibility individually to tackle daily risks, reduce human suffering and cope with the reality of our vulnerabilities in a fragile domain of existence.
In general, major shifts, or life changing experiences, that on average happens every 5 to 10 years, bring unexpected impacts in everyone’s life. Some can be in our control such as changing jobs, divorces, accidents, or neglecting a healthy life style. But, some are not, such as floods, earthquakes, hurricanes, wild fires, economic market collapses and pandemics.
We have no choice but to cope with these life transitions and be creative in our means of adaptation to new situations in our lives. Standards and traditional approach have been summarized, earlier in question-3.urther, we have no other choice but to promote the pillars of safety culture, through risk assessment, disaster prevention, mitigation, preparedness, and being mindful of our personal responsibilities.
Specifically, I would recommend having an emergency kit ready for unforeseen incidents, that should contain food, water, medications, radio, mobile phone, battery powered lights. We should also increase our resiliency by regular inspection of integrity and safety of our residence and work environments.
Some social and economic scientists predict that we will never get back to pre-Covid normal, and by the time new vaccines bring a herd immunity, we have already adapted new lifestyles. I would consider this as an opportunity for protection of the environment that ultimately may increases the chances for human race’s survival on this planet.
